The New York Times’ FiveThirtyEight blog is not giving Gov. Perry any hope of winning the South Carolina Primary. That primary is likely do or die for Perry’s presidential aspirations.

FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver writes that the blog’s projections "are formulated from an average of recent surveys, with adjustments made to account for a polling firm’s accuracy, freshness of a poll and each candidate’s momentum."

Mitt Romney is in the lead. The projection gives him a 43 percent chance of winning. Newt Gingrich receives a 41 percent chance of winning. Texas Congressman Ron Paul has an 8 percent chance of winning in South Carolina according to the blog’s projection.